Congress has approved $900 billion of relief for American households and businesses. This may convince some people that another recession is unlikely.

They’re wrong.

The new stimulus will help support the demand side, but with the pandemic raging and the new English viral variant already here, more lockdowns are coming. That means the supply side can’t function. The result will be another surge in the U.S. savings rate, with spending power bottled up as restaurants, retailers, theaters, gyms, air travel, and other segments are forced back into hibernation.
Questions remain regarding the severity of the recession to come. The economy will rebound at some point in 2021, but a great deal of uncertainty surrounds the pace and timing of the recovery. A new presidential administration and vaccine distribution layer further uncertainty onto economic prospects.

Normally, to address questions of this nature, I’d be traveling around the nation delivering presentations focused on the most recently available data. I hope to speak with all of you face-to-face at some point in 2021, though public health concerns remain a hurdle to such gatherings.

Accordingly, I continue to deliver forward-looking economic content via webinars. My 2021 presentation, Anirban Basu and the Chamber of Data, supplies information and perspective helpful in your strategic planning, and it will help you address questions being asked by your many stakeholders.

As with our in-person presentations, webinars can be tailored to your geographies and industries of interest. Should you want to learn more, you can reply to this email () or simply call us at 410.522.7243.

Stay healthy and safe!

Very truly yours,
Dr. Anirban Basu
Economist
Sage Policy Group, Inc.